Live Lake Forest

For the month of April 2009, the sales volume in Lake Forest was up again compared to the same period last year.  There were a total of 63 closed sales in the MLS, a 12.5% improvement to the 56 in April 2008.  The prices were substantially lower though. 

The 29 sales of single family homes ranged from the low of $305,000 to a high of $702,500 and averaged $432,160 at $235/square foot, a decline of more than 21%. 

The low SFR closing for the month was $305,000 for a 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,250 square foot bank owned home.  It was only on the market one day, and sold for $1,000 over list price.  

The prior MLS sale of this house was in the summer of 2005, for a price of $624,900.  It was on the market 17 days that time, but sold for the full asking price.  From the title company records, it appears that the house was sold again in August of 2006, for $730,000!  The loans recorded at that time indicate there was a 10% down payment, and 2 loans that came to $657,000 in financing.  Since that sale occured off the MLS, I can’t determine how close to asking price, or how long it was on the market that time.

Condo sales in April ranged from $100,000 up to $324,900 with a median price of $180,000 and an average of $189,605 ($187/square foot).  The 34 sales were made up of 2 traditional sales, 4 post-foreclosure flips, and the other 28 were either short sales or bank-owned.

The market continues to be strong for the foreclosed homes.  So far this year, there have been 3,254 bank-owned homes sold.  They range in price from a low of $42,000 to a high of $2,450,000 but the average comes to $326,549.  Today, there are only 463 foreclosed homes on the market, and 1,318 in escrow.  The average time to sell these properties has been 43 days.  

The short sales are selling, although not nearly so quickly.  Since January 1, the MLS shows that 1,445 short sales have closed.  There are currently 2,385 in escrow, and 3,015 available as active listings.  The problem with trying to analyze the short sales is that there is no consistency.  Some agents keep properties in the active status, and continue to show them long after they have received offers, while others put them immediately into “backup” status, but really have no idea what the lender will take or when it might close.  This process typically takes so long that by the time the lender gives an answer, either the value has fallen below the buyer’s offer, or the buyer has found another property and withdraws his offer. 

There are 5,964 properties classified as “equity” sellers, but 43% of those, are priced at over a million dollars!  For more modest home buyers, there are currently only 1,211 homes priced under $500,000 and 2,229 priced between $500,000 and $1 Million.  (These numbers don’t add up because some of these are range-priced, so they get counted in 2 categories.) 

I’m now hearing lots of stories of multiple offers for REO properties, as well as on the lower priced non-distressed properties.  I really hope that the real estate decline is coming to an end and that the market will stabilize, but it’s still too early to tell.  The moratorium on foreclosures ended on April 1, 2009 and the number of homes that are starting the foreclosure process has increased.  Since it takes almost 4 months to foreclose, we won’t have a lot of data to report until early August.  

If you are a first time buyer, the combination of the $8,000 tax credit and low interest rates make it very tempting to buy now.  You just need to make sure that the home you buy is one that will meet your needs for several (5 to 7) years because there is no guarantee that once the market “recovers” it will begin to appreciate again!

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